***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 1.4 74.4 69.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.7 18.1 1.1 71.2 65.9 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 17.5 18.0 18.7 1.6 78.5 73.2 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 11.7 12.9 16.4 1.0 67.3 65.7 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.3 16.5 1.1 66.7 65.9 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.2 13.0 14.6 1.3 69.6 69.0 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.7 18.1 1.0 68.7 65.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.8 9.3 14.7 1.5 73.2 72.8 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 14.9 15.3 17.1 1.2 70.7 68.4 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 1.3 71.1 70.3 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.8 15.4 16.2 1.2 68.6 68.8 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.7 15.5 1.5 73.2 72.2 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.1 14.9 15.3 1.3 71.5 68.9 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.4 16.3 0.6 59.2 59.5 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.5 17.6 0.8 63.5 64.5 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.9 16.1 15.9 1.2 68.3 68.0 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 17.3 0.6 63.3 59.4 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.5 14.0 14.1 1.0 67.9 65.3 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.6 18.3 1.3 74.4 68.9 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.8 12.4 1.5 75.2 72.3 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 14.8 15.4 18.1 1.2 70.6 68.2 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 17.3 0.5 62.7 57.6 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.5 18.3 1.4 74.9 71.1 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.7 16.3 0.9 65.1 64.0 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 14.5 15.3 17.0 1.0 66.9 65.1 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 13.6 14.4 14.7 1.2 68.1 67.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.0 17.4 1.0 67.8 64.9 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.0 14.2 16.9 1.0 65.0 65.1 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.9 13.6 1.2 71.4 68.7 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 15.7 16.1 18.5 1.3 74.5 69.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------