***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 30.9 42.8 38.3 82.8 50.4 41.6 29.5 42.8 73.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 37.5 48.7 38.0 95.2 58.1 48.9 37.8 44.7 51.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 51.9 54.3 44.8 99.8 60.2 49.5 35.5 41.9 69.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 32.9 58.3 40.3 89.2 53.1 45.5 33.4 52.7 68.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 50.0 50.2 43.4 97.7 57.7 50.1 38.1 43.7 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.1 35.8 42.7 82.7 46.9 41.6 32.7 37.2 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 31.7 47.5 35.1 89.5 52.9 46.4 32.8 45.2 58.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 81.7 76.4 53.2 100.5 56.4 50.4 62.5 72.5 84.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 29.4 43.2 43.2 88.8 51.5 44.8 33.5 40.8 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 69.0 73.2 56.6 100.3 58.2 50.2 50.5 59.1 80.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 44.2 52.8 44.9 105.5 61.4 53.5 24.2 36.5 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 50.9 56.6 41.5 100.3 58.1 50.9 35.5 43.6 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.4 32.6 41.0 95.6 58.6 48.8 20.1 29.2 40.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 76.9 81.6 64.3 111.4 63.8 53.9 52.6 70.4 86.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.8 45.3 33.4 90.8 57.8 48.9 20.6 38.3 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 21.5 36.3 36.0 86.1 50.8 44.4 26.7 35.7 43.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 30.2 45.5 38.0 95.9 55.1 46.8 30.4 36.8 58.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 64.7 69.7 65.7 104.3 60.0 50.3 41.7 56.7 72.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 53.4 54.1 41.0 98.8 59.9 50.3 33.4 42.4 75.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 64.0 65.9 66.0 106.2 61.3 52.1 52.2 62.1 67.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 30.2 45.9 42.9 92.0 54.9 46.4 31.8 41.7 62.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 54.0 51.6 42.2 101.7 59.9 50.1 36.3 48.0 55.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 57.4 63.3 45.3 102.7 61.7 51.1 40.0 52.3 68.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 74.9 75.7 58.9 107.5 62.0 51.6 46.0 65.3 77.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 32.2 46.0 43.8 88.9 53.6 45.8 30.7 41.6 76.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 32.8 30.3 33.1 92.5 56.1 48.1 20.3 27.5 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 37.6 50.3 41.4 83.2 50.8 42.8 41.8 50.2 65.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 39.0 33.7 38.0 90.6 55.0 46.8 22.9 32.9 43.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 60.5 88.5 67.9 105.2 61.3 50.4 58.4 72.9 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 53.8 51.7 37.6 91.6 56.1 47.4 39.2 43.4 72.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------