***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.1 18.7 7.7 90.9 66.2 48.1 2.1 4.1 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.6 14.5 8.4 115.1 70.3 53.6 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 13.3 9.0 103.6 68.3 50.8 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 16.4 8.6 98.9 67.5 46.9 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.5 13.2 7.4 94.0 68.8 48.2 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.5 8.9 85.5 65.2 48.0 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.7 12.5 7.7 112.8 70.4 52.5 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 16.5 10.7 114.2 71.0 51.0 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.2 15.9 7.9 90.0 66.6 44.8 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 12.1 10.6 100.6 68.1 48.4 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.4 11.8 7.2 101.4 70.5 49.5 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.5 25.7 8.0 114.4 72.6 51.2 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.3 6.9 8.8 109.7 73.1 51.4 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.0 21.4 14.2 120.1 71.3 52.8 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.3 14.0 7.0 107.6 71.5 50.4 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 0.8 5.9 7.4 96.4 69.5 46.3 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.2 11.5 9.2 130.2 73.9 54.9 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.4 14.9 14.5 117.2 71.6 52.7 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.6 17.0 8.7 110.5 70.1 53.5 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.2 13.8 15.2 123.2 72.8 52.8 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.0 9.9 8.5 103.0 70.7 47.4 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.3 12.7 10.4 131.5 74.3 56.6 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.2 9.2 105.9 70.7 52.8 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 13.9 12.4 113.0 69.9 52.5 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.2 11.3 8.8 105.2 68.1 49.6 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.2 6.2 6.2 99.5 69.3 49.4 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.9 8.5 96.9 65.8 48.9 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.0 12.8 8.0 98.1 67.6 47.2 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 18.6 15.7 123.1 72.8 53.3 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.3 8.2 106.1 67.8 51.1 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------