***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.0 6.4 68.1 55.2 41.5 2.2 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.1 7.5 85.3 60.1 44.8 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.3 7.3 7.1 73.6 56.4 41.9 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.9 14.6 5.6 59.8 53.9 37.6 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.0 10.8 6.9 74.9 58.7 41.6 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.2 8.8 6.4 60.1 51.3 37.2 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.1 6.7 77.5 60.0 44.4 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 10.5 25.4 7.3 65.4 54.1 41.4 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.7 6.7 7.7 74.6 56.9 39.4 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.3 15.7 8.1 68.4 56.1 40.6 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.4 10.5 5.4 65.2 56.3 40.0 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 4.2 15.0 5.5 62.6 55.5 39.0 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.5 5.4 62.1 52.4 38.2 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.2 22.6 11.2 86.5 60.1 42.1 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 5.6 4.4 59.6 58.4 40.3 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 4.6 13.1 4.4 53.8 51.0 31.3 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.0 7.0 81.9 60.9 43.3 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.8 22.6 11.1 76.8 57.2 44.4 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.4 7.8 86.7 59.6 43.6 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.9 15.9 10.4 71.2 50.9 42.6 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.0 10.7 7.2 73.0 58.9 39.7 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.3 8.1 88.0 60.7 43.7 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 15.2 7.8 81.2 58.6 41.5 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.1 15.3 10.3 83.9 58.9 44.4 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.4 6.6 64.8 57.6 42.2 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.8 4.6 63.6 57.9 39.4 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.0 6.8 66.1 56.2 41.4 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.8 7.5 4.8 56.7 53.6 36.4 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.6 20.4 11.6 76.8 55.9 43.4 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.5 6.9 77.7 57.6 43.5 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------