***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.4 25.5 14.4 131.7 74.3 55.5 4.3 10.2 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.8 18.2 13.3 135.0 74.1 60.1 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 18.7 16.4 142.1 74.7 57.8 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.2 12.6 109.4 68.2 52.8 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.9 15.3 12.9 113.3 70.1 56.8 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.5 12.4 88.3 60.7 49.3 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.2 23.4 12.2 129.8 72.1 54.2 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 14.5 12.3 92.9 59.6 47.2 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 13.1 12.0 93.8 62.5 47.9 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.2 12.7 90.6 59.2 47.0 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.4 11.7 96.7 64.3 50.1 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.2 10.4 93.8 62.3 47.3 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.3 8.5 12.2 103.8 68.6 52.1 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 29.9 18.7 128.3 70.7 56.4 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.6 15.3 10.9 116.6 73.9 57.3 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.4 9.5 81.0 59.1 44.3 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.2 17.3 13.8 135.6 72.6 54.5 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.9 16.4 105.5 62.6 51.3 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.1 24.0 14.8 143.3 75.6 61.6 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 17.4 16.6 111.2 65.0 52.1 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.8 14.5 13.8 111.7 68.6 50.3 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.5 17.8 14.9 139.2 74.4 56.5 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.1 25.9 16.6 147.6 76.8 59.9 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.0 18.6 17.3 125.4 68.6 56.1 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 21.3 17.0 142.4 79.7 61.7 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.8 10.0 97.6 68.1 47.1 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 22.3 15.7 130.7 75.0 57.3 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.9 9.8 94.1 65.3 51.1 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.5 17.9 108.5 62.7 52.5 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.4 15.5 12.9 130.9 72.8 57.3 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------