***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.5 9.9 56.3 49.9 43.8 5.2 8.5 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 16.2 15.5 8.9 63.2 54.8 45.9 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.6 12.3 81.6 57.1 52.0 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 10.1 11.1 13.6 86.8 62.1 57.7 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 11.1 15.5 16.3 102.1 66.4 62.5 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 6.6 6.5 15.0 90.2 60.8 57.4 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.9 8.9 8.5 59.2 52.8 44.1 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 19.1 24.9 23.0 118.7 68.9 64.5 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 7.5 10.1 15.5 94.3 61.6 57.9 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 16.6 16.2 25.3 126.9 72.1 67.1 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 16.3 20.2 20.6 138.3 76.8 70.0 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 16.0 16.4 17.6 121.3 70.3 65.3 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 7.5 10.7 14.5 101.3 65.9 60.8 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 19.3 25.5 20.2 109.7 68.3 61.5 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 4.6 9.4 11.1 82.8 64.0 59.9 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 7.5 8.2 14.6 103.7 64.8 60.5 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.2 8.0 57.9 52.5 41.6 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.2 19.3 23.7 115.2 68.0 63.0 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 11.7 11.7 9.7 67.7 55.7 48.2 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 18.3 22.1 23.7 119.1 69.9 64.7 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 10.6 10.0 13.4 83.3 58.1 53.6 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.9 8.6 8.7 63.7 55.1 46.9 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 14.5 14.6 11.8 80.2 58.6 52.0 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 21.3 22.9 19.0 106.7 66.2 60.6 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 11.8 11.4 11.4 60.7 51.6 48.3 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 12.2 14.8 12.3 102.1 68.3 64.5 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.8 10.3 10.4 55.6 49.4 44.1 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.7 9.0 15.4 102.6 67.3 62.5 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 17.7 23.1 22.7 112.1 66.8 61.7 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.5 9.6 65.7 55.9 46.1 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------