***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.1 30.2 1.4 73.3 70.7 27.8 28.2 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 28.9 28.9 29.9 1.0 67.2 66.0 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 28.8 28.9 30.6 1.5 74.8 70.6 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 22.3 23.3 28.3 2.0 84.5 78.1 20.5 21.2 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 29.6 29.9 28.8 1.8 79.3 74.7 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 28.3 29.1 26.5 2.2 89.0 82.0 26.4 27.3 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.7 28.9 29.8 1.1 70.0 68.4 27.6 28.2 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.5 26.5 1.4 77.7 71.8 15.9 16.3 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.3 29.2 1.8 79.7 75.2 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 28.7 29.1 27.4 1.7 80.3 74.4 27.1 28.0 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.4 28.8 1.6 78.2 73.2 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.3 28.2 1.5 76.9 72.1 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 29.5 29.8 28.2 1.8 78.6 75.3 27.5 28.6 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 28.6 28.8 28.0 1.1 73.8 69.7 27.3 27.7 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 30.0 30.5 30.4 1.9 81.7 77.0 28.6 29.2 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 30.2 30.5 28.7 1.9 81.8 76.8 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 28.5 28.8 29.8 1.3 75.7 71.1 27.0 27.5 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 27.8 28.2 26.4 1.5 81.7 74.4 26.3 27.1 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.3 30.0 1.0 67.6 66.3 27.1 27.7 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 23.6 24.1 23.9 1.4 81.6 74.3 22.3 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 29.1 29.2 29.9 1.6 76.2 73.2 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.2 29.7 1.3 74.5 70.2 27.6 27.9 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.6 30.2 1.2 70.3 68.4 27.5 27.9 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 28.3 28.4 28.3 1.3 76.7 71.4 26.9 27.5 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 29.2 29.3 28.7 1.5 75.8 73.3 27.8 28.4 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.3 27.9 1.6 78.5 73.7 27.4 28.3 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 28.4 28.5 29.3 1.4 74.1 72.0 27.4 27.9 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 30.2 30.7 29.2 2.1 85.7 78.8 28.7 29.3 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 23.2 23.9 25.3 1.5 82.8 75.2 21.8 22.2 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 28.6 28.5 30.0 1.1 67.8 66.5 27.3 28.0 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------