***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 30.3 29.5 30.5 0.6 58.4 58.3 27.6 29.0 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.9 30.1 0.2 52.8 54.3 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.3 29.9 30.9 0.7 60.0 59.1 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 23.5 23.5 29.2 1.5 68.6 65.3 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.8 30.2 29.2 1.1 64.3 61.8 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 29.4 29.1 27.1 1.7 71.8 66.7 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.1 30.0 0.2 52.6 54.2 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.6 27.2 0.8 59.9 58.2 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.2 29.4 1.2 66.6 62.1 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.1 27.9 1.1 64.1 60.9 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.3 29.9 29.1 1.1 63.1 61.2 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.5 29.0 1.0 60.2 59.0 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.1 28.3 1.2 63.9 61.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.9 27.7 0.0 50.3 51.9 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.1 31.0 30.7 1.6 71.0 66.3 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 31.4 31.4 29.1 1.5 67.0 64.4 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.8 30.0 0.4 54.1 55.3 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.3 26.8 0.8 60.1 58.4 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.7 30.4 0.3 53.7 54.9 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.9 24.0 0.6 56.7 56.0 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.1 29.7 30.0 0.9 61.3 60.0 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.1 29.8 0.3 55.1 54.8 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.3 30.4 0.3 54.5 55.0 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.9 28.2 0.5 56.7 56.4 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 30.6 29.9 28.9 0.8 61.8 60.3 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.6 28.9 1.1 62.2 59.7 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.1 29.4 29.5 0.6 58.9 58.4 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.2 31.1 29.9 1.7 70.3 67.0 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.6 25.5 0.6 58.0 56.6 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.4 29.3 30.3 0.3 53.9 55.2 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------