***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.4 30.3 1.0 62.8 60.2 26.5 27.7 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.5 29.8 0.6 59.2 57.1 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.4 30.7 1.1 65.0 61.2 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.1 28.9 1.7 73.1 65.8 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.1 29.1 1.5 68.6 63.4 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 28.9 29.2 26.6 1.7 74.1 66.9 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.7 29.7 0.6 60.1 57.0 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.4 17.8 27.1 1.2 66.8 61.2 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.5 29.2 1.6 69.0 63.8 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.3 27.8 1.5 69.5 63.5 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 29.2 29.2 28.9 1.4 69.2 62.8 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 27.5 28.7 28.8 1.3 68.1 61.6 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.4 28.0 1.5 70.8 64.1 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.8 27.8 0.7 59.0 58.2 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.9 30.2 1.6 71.4 65.4 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 30.6 30.9 28.9 1.8 73.5 66.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 28.6 28.8 29.8 0.8 62.4 59.2 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 27.9 28.4 26.8 1.3 67.8 62.8 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.7 30.1 0.6 59.0 57.6 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 23.5 23.8 24.1 1.1 67.0 62.1 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.3 29.9 1.3 65.9 61.8 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.1 28.9 29.7 0.8 62.2 59.5 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.0 28.2 30.2 0.8 59.4 58.3 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.5 28.5 28.3 1.0 63.6 60.5 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 29.8 29.8 28.6 1.2 66.5 61.6 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 28.8 29.0 28.6 1.4 70.5 63.9 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.0 28.4 29.2 1.0 63.5 60.5 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.1 29.5 1.8 74.4 66.9 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 23.5 23.4 25.6 1.2 67.5 62.3 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.6 30.0 0.6 60.8 57.6 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------