***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.4 29.7 1.1 67.8 61.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.1 29.1 0.3 59.7 54.4 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.5 30.1 1.2 67.6 61.7 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 23.0 23.5 28.0 2.1 77.9 70.4 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.6 31.0 28.7 1.8 74.7 67.7 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 29.3 30.2 27.0 2.9 84.4 77.9 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.9 29.1 0.5 62.3 56.2 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 18.3 18.9 26.5 1.7 74.4 67.3 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.4 29.2 1.8 74.3 67.5 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.4 27.4 1.8 75.3 67.7 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.7 29.0 1.8 73.7 67.6 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 29.5 29.8 28.3 1.9 74.1 68.4 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 30.8 31.4 28.7 2.2 76.0 71.0 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 27.0 28.8 27.7 0.8 66.1 58.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.5 30.3 1.9 76.9 69.1 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 31.5 32.0 28.9 2.2 77.6 71.2 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.8 29.0 0.6 65.2 56.8 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.7 26.3 1.6 74.9 66.0 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.4 29.4 0.4 60.5 55.5 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 25.1 25.5 24.2 1.8 77.5 68.8 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 29.8 29.9 29.8 1.5 71.2 64.8 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 27.1 29.4 28.9 0.5 64.6 56.0 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.6 29.7 0.8 64.1 58.5 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.0 28.1 1.2 69.4 61.5 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.0 28.5 1.3 71.4 63.9 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.2 28.2 2.3 76.1 71.4 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.3 28.9 1.1 68.5 61.9 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.8 29.1 2.2 79.5 71.6 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.3 24.8 25.4 1.7 75.6 66.6 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.8 29.4 0.5 61.6 56.1 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------