***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 29.6 30.3 30.3 3.0 84.5 82.1 25.8 27.2 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 29.3 29.9 30.3 2.8 82.4 79.5 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 29.7 30.3 30.4 2.9 80.5 78.7 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 22.3 23.0 27.0 2.9 84.1 81.4 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.7 28.1 2.6 80.6 77.9 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 28.5 28.9 25.4 2.4 79.1 77.2 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.3 29.8 30.5 3.2 86.3 83.5 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.7 18.5 25.1 1.9 73.1 71.5 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 29.8 30.7 29.2 2.8 82.2 79.5 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 29.3 29.9 26.5 2.4 77.7 75.7 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.0 28.2 2.2 75.3 73.2 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.7 26.7 1.9 71.8 70.3 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.1 27.9 2.1 72.5 71.6 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 29.3 29.6 28.8 2.9 81.9 80.4 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 30.0 30.5 30.1 2.6 82.0 79.4 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.6 27.9 2.2 74.5 73.3 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 28.8 29.8 30.5 3.5 88.0 85.1 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 28.6 29.1 25.6 2.5 77.9 76.6 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 29.0 29.4 30.3 2.8 81.7 78.9 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.4 24.9 23.2 2.2 74.8 73.8 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 29.5 30.3 29.9 2.8 81.6 79.6 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.6 30.8 30.3 3.4 86.3 84.9 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 29.4 30.1 30.5 3.0 82.7 80.2 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 29.1 29.7 28.4 2.7 79.7 78.2 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 29.6 30.4 29.0 2.9 83.9 81.3 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 47 53 100 28.5 28.7 25.9 1.5 65.6 65.8 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 29.1 29.6 29.7 3.1 85.4 83.1 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 30.2 30.6 28.2 2.6 80.8 78.8 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.3 25.0 24.9 2.5 78.4 76.9 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 29.2 29.8 30.4 2.8 82.3 79.5 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------