***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.0 19.3 1.3 84.2 78.4 15.3 15.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.3 19.1 1.1 79.6 75.2 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 18.1 18.7 19.7 1.3 83.9 78.2 16.6 17.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 13.0 14.4 17.2 1.6 89.5 84.4 11.9 12.5 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.5 14.9 17.3 1.4 87.7 81.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 13.3 13.9 15.3 1.6 92.4 86.3 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 16.3 16.6 19.1 1.1 79.6 75.5 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 8.8 9.3 14.8 1.3 86.5 80.5 7.7 8.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 15.8 16.3 17.4 1.4 88.0 82.2 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.0 15.7 1.4 87.6 82.2 14.6 15.1 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 15.5 15.8 17.0 1.3 86.4 79.7 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.5 13.7 15.9 1.3 86.1 80.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.8 15.1 15.6 1.4 90.3 83.1 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 16.6 16.7 17.0 1.2 85.6 79.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 16.9 17.4 18.9 1.5 87.5 82.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 16.2 16.7 16.5 1.5 89.9 82.9 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.3 19.0 1.2 83.7 78.4 15.3 16.2 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 14.3 14.6 14.8 1.4 88.3 83.7 13.0 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.0 16.2 19.2 1.1 80.1 75.2 14.8 15.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 10.0 10.5 12.7 1.4 89.6 85.4 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 1.3 86.6 80.5 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.1 18.9 1.2 82.7 77.3 14.5 15.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 15.4 15.7 19.2 1.2 81.5 76.4 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 16.3 16.7 17.0 1.3 86.3 80.7 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 15.7 16.0 18.0 1.3 85.8 80.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.1 15.0 1.4 90.8 83.7 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.2 18.6 1.3 85.4 79.7 14.5 15.1 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 14.6 14.9 17.8 1.6 89.8 84.3 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 13.0 13.5 14.2 1.4 87.9 83.8 11.6 12.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 16.3 16.5 19.3 1.1 78.9 75.2 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------