***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.3 19.2 0.5 60.8 57.0 14.6 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.7 18.9 0.3 55.3 54.4 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.5 19.7 0.7 64.4 59.3 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.2 17.3 1.1 71.1 64.3 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.6 17.1 0.8 65.6 60.8 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.0 15.5 1.1 72.1 65.0 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 19.0 0.3 54.1 54.6 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.9 14.7 0.5 61.6 57.0 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.1 17.1 0.9 67.7 61.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 15.5 0.7 65.7 59.6 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.9 16.8 0.8 65.7 60.4 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.7 15.8 0.7 64.8 59.1 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.7 15.2 0.9 70.9 62.9 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.3 16.6 0.3 58.1 55.1 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.6 19.0 1.1 72.5 65.5 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.3 16.4 1.1 72.3 64.8 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.1 18.8 0.4 57.9 56.0 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.4 14.5 0.7 66.2 60.1 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 19.1 0.4 57.7 55.3 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.0 12.1 0.5 64.5 58.8 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.7 18.4 0.8 66.1 59.6 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.6 18.7 0.4 58.2 56.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.7 19.0 0.4 60.9 56.5 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.2 16.6 0.6 64.2 58.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.8 17.7 0.6 61.8 58.1 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.8 15.0 0.9 69.8 62.2 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 18.3 0.5 59.9 57.0 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.5 18.0 1.3 75.4 67.0 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 13.9 0.6 64.1 58.8 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.7 19.2 0.4 55.9 55.3 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------