***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 15.6 16.8 20.1 2.8 87.6 86.1 13.9 14.9 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 15.8 16.3 20.1 2.9 85.9 85.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 18.1 19.0 20.3 2.8 85.8 84.6 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 13.4 14.7 17.7 3.0 89.6 88.9 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 14.5 14.9 18.4 2.8 88.1 87.1 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.7 14.1 15.2 2.4 86.3 85.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 15.9 17.2 20.1 3.0 88.3 87.2 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 9.5 10.4 15.5 2.8 88.8 88.2 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.5 16.8 18.7 2.9 89.5 88.7 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 15.8 16.9 16.7 2.9 89.4 89.1 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 15.8 16.2 17.9 2.6 84.8 85.1 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 13.7 14.4 16.6 2.7 84.9 85.2 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 15.2 15.6 16.7 2.4 83.0 84.3 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 16.6 18.0 18.2 2.9 87.1 87.5 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 17.0 17.3 19.5 2.5 86.3 85.2 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 16.4 16.8 17.3 2.4 83.0 83.9 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 16.1 18.2 20.1 3.3 89.6 88.9 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 14.4 15.5 16.0 2.9 88.5 88.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.6 20.1 2.8 85.1 84.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 10.8 11.3 14.1 3.0 91.1 90.3 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 15.6 16.2 19.6 2.8 87.3 86.7 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 15.5 17.1 20.2 3.1 88.7 87.5 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.1 16.2 20.1 2.8 84.5 84.3 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 16.1 17.0 18.2 2.8 87.3 87.1 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.0 19.0 2.7 85.8 85.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 15.0 15.4 15.4 2.3 80.3 81.8 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 16.0 16.7 19.5 2.8 87.1 86.1 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 14.9 15.4 18.2 2.6 87.4 86.3 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 13.7 14.4 15.3 2.9 90.0 89.9 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 16.2 16.8 20.3 2.8 86.3 85.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------