***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 75.6 178.1 84.9 77.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 65.8 91.4 70.3 158.8 84.9 73.8 37.8 44.7 51.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 74.1 86.4 68.6 163.7 81.7 76.5 35.5 41.9 69.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 73.8 83.8 68.0 156.9 78.2 72.6 33.4 52.7 68.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 62.3 68.9 67.8 156.5 77.5 72.8 38.1 43.7 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 41.3 55.4 73.4 124.5 68.1 63.4 32.7 37.2 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 69.0 81.1 74.4 164.3 82.7 74.4 32.8 45.2 58.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 96.9 107.3 66.6 136.8 75.2 67.5 62.5 72.5 84.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 58.8 68.4 68.6 153.6 79.0 72.8 33.5 40.8 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 87.6 101.1 74.4 145.1 78.3 71.3 50.5 59.1 80.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 56.4 64.9 57.6 142.6 76.6 68.8 24.2 36.5 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 49.0 72.0 51.6 132.2 71.8 64.8 35.5 43.6 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 33.1 42.0 58.3 125.8 67.5 63.1 20.1 29.2 40.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 89.2 105.0 79.2 149.8 83.0 75.3 52.6 70.4 86.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 51.8 58.0 56.8 145.7 77.4 69.1 20.6 38.3 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 37.9 45.1 57.1 129.8 72.1 64.4 26.7 35.7 43.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 59.2 67.9 70.2 154.4 82.8 71.9 30.4 36.8 58.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 80.8 91.1 86.2 144.9 78.6 72.7 41.7 56.7 72.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 75.4 104.9 68.4 157.8 85.0 74.5 33.4 42.4 75.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 67.0 69.5 83.5 136.6 76.6 69.2 52.2 62.1 67.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 68.5 82.1 66.0 163.4 79.4 74.5 31.8 41.7 62.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 64.9 91.6 67.7 149.6 84.0 72.0 36.3 48.0 55.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 67.1 84.6 67.9 157.3 85.1 75.9 40.0 52.3 68.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 95.9 117.2 77.8 150.8 79.9 75.3 46.0 65.3 77.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 78.0 94.5 82.9 173.5 83.3 77.1 30.7 41.6 76.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 31.2 42.2 49.1 130.7 69.0 64.1 20.3 27.5 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 82.7 98.4 86.1 176.0 85.0 77.9 41.8 50.2 65.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 48.3 53.9 58.8 141.3 76.8 68.2 22.9 32.9 43.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 98.4 110.4 85.7 141.0 78.5 71.5 58.4 72.9 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 73.2 107.8 71.9 165.1 84.2 75.6 39.2 43.4 72.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------