***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 9.4 169.1 80.6 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 16.1 11.1 161.1 77.0 59.1 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.8 21.6 9.2 167.5 80.9 62.4 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.3 21.8 8.4 168.0 82.0 63.8 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.5 22.8 8.8 164.5 80.9 62.8 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.3 16.3 10.5 129.7 75.5 61.3 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.6 16.8 12.0 162.0 75.9 59.3 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.3 8.8 117.8 70.2 57.7 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 14.5 20.3 9.1 159.9 78.5 61.9 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.7 10.0 138.9 74.9 59.8 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.7 16.5 7.1 135.9 75.2 60.0 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.3 22.2 6.4 118.2 70.2 58.6 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 5.9 7.5 7.6 130.0 75.4 61.6 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.2 22.6 12.0 156.4 76.8 62.7 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 10.7 15.6 5.5 139.6 79.1 60.7 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 8.1 10.4 7.2 133.0 75.6 61.2 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.1 12.0 11.7 154.6 76.6 57.0 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 15.6 12.6 145.8 72.5 59.7 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.5 21.4 10.4 161.7 78.2 60.5 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.8 9.8 11.9 122.6 67.5 56.3 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.2 12.0 7.9 167.5 81.5 62.0 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 18.9 11.2 162.9 80.0 57.6 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 15.2 9.7 156.8 77.7 62.4 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.0 19.3 11.3 156.7 75.5 61.9 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 18.1 29.3 10.2 174.7 81.2 61.5 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 2.6 8.8 6.0 127.9 75.5 59.2 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 18.4 11.0 167.6 80.8 60.6 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.1 18.3 6.9 145.8 79.6 62.2 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.6 18.2 12.7 140.9 71.8 58.6 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.9 21.9 10.7 163.3 77.4 60.2 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------