***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 170.8 78.0 67.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 12.8 15.1 13.4 133.8 73.6 62.8 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.7 15.5 13.6 156.7 78.4 66.6 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 27.6 38.6 13.9 195.5 83.2 68.2 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 16.6 26.4 14.9 199.3 84.7 69.9 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.1 21.5 18.1 169.7 79.4 64.9 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.4 12.1 14.3 143.1 76.1 64.4 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 36.5 48.5 15.9 164.1 81.2 66.8 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.4 24.5 16.0 195.6 86.0 69.8 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 31.3 43.9 17.3 173.3 81.5 67.5 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.6 27.5 12.4 176.8 82.0 67.4 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 24.7 34.5 11.8 167.4 81.3 67.2 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.1 20.6 13.8 178.1 80.3 67.4 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.9 30.7 16.8 136.0 75.7 63.1 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.4 20.0 10.7 168.7 81.0 64.1 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 17.1 22.3 12.9 177.7 81.0 67.0 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.8 13.7 14.0 127.6 72.0 59.5 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 25.1 29.6 20.3 152.3 77.2 65.6 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.3 13.1 133.4 73.8 62.7 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.9 30.5 20.9 148.1 79.9 65.4 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 17.5 27.1 13.9 190.1 84.1 70.1 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.9 14.5 13.7 121.7 70.9 58.4 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.2 20.4 13.3 135.2 75.0 62.4 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.4 21.7 17.2 146.6 76.4 64.4 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 15.2 18.9 16.0 183.5 82.1 68.1 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 12.4 17.0 11.0 176.1 83.9 67.8 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 18.8 27.3 16.2 174.3 80.1 67.7 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.4 24.5 12.5 184.1 82.9 66.6 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 30.8 37.6 20.5 147.0 78.5 65.2 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.8 14.1 13.6 145.4 75.1 65.1 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------