***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 103.9 67.7 52.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.0 13.5 11.9 93.9 61.6 48.8 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.8 17.6 13.1 109.8 69.0 52.5 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.1 12.3 103.0 67.1 52.7 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 15.2 13.5 114.0 70.0 55.3 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.8 16.2 82.0 57.5 49.7 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.7 19.1 11.7 93.2 63.1 50.1 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.5 26.9 14.8 111.4 68.2 54.3 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.1 18.4 14.4 115.1 71.0 53.8 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.9 16.7 16.0 112.8 68.8 53.4 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 11.5 101.6 64.9 52.4 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.6 10.8 100.1 67.0 53.4 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 12.3 85.4 61.2 50.0 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 18.5 13.9 93.2 63.7 48.7 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.6 4.4 8.7 80.3 61.3 48.1 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.6 11.6 88.2 62.2 50.3 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.4 10.9 90.0 63.1 47.5 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.7 19.0 115.2 66.3 54.0 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 9.5 11.9 94.0 60.8 48.2 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 18.6 20.7 122.7 68.7 58.0 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.4 16.4 12.9 114.9 73.8 53.8 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.8 10.2 84.2 59.0 46.7 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.9 14.7 11.7 92.5 62.6 47.4 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.9 18.5 15.8 107.2 66.6 50.4 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.5 15.3 14.8 109.6 69.9 53.9 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 10.0 87.3 64.7 51.9 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.2 17.1 14.4 103.2 67.9 52.9 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.3 10.2 88.4 64.2 50.1 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 21.1 19.2 113.6 65.5 54.3 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.4 12.4 97.7 64.1 51.0 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------