***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 9999.0 0.0 39.7 240.2 90.7 83.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 22.6 33.9 33.8 231.2 91.9 83.7 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 21.5 30.8 32.8 207.5 88.7 82.0 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 14.5 20.6 33.4 173.4 81.3 73.8 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 18.1 22.1 30.6 164.1 80.9 73.5 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 13.6 17.1 28.7 139.8 74.1 66.9 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 17.4 37.4 36.4 237.6 92.8 82.2 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 26.7 31.6 27.1 148.2 78.3 68.8 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.8 22.7 29.2 159.5 81.5 72.7 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 17.7 21.8 31.1 156.7 81.0 72.6 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 17.4 21.8 26.6 158.5 77.9 72.0 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 17.5 19.6 22.6 143.7 76.3 66.7 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 9.5 11.3 24.5 134.2 74.7 65.8 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 32.2 49.1 36.5 203.8 89.1 84.2 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 14.4 21.8 31.9 178.7 79.8 73.1 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.0 25.4 139.9 75.1 67.5 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 15.9 32.9 33.6 227.1 93.0 79.8 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 20.8 24.2 34.2 163.4 82.8 74.7 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 19.2 46.2 33.0 228.8 91.0 85.2 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 19.5 23.1 30.0 146.7 78.0 68.7 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 18.8 24.1 31.3 182.4 84.6 76.6 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 15.4 36.2 32.6 218.2 91.6 81.4 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 27.2 47.4 33.2 228.9 91.1 86.5 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 35.4 47.5 33.5 186.4 86.2 79.9 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 16.0 33.6 42.0 213.3 88.0 81.1 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 11.9 17.2 22.2 145.5 75.5 66.3 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 17.8 35.0 44.5 232.9 89.5 84.0 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.8 12.8 29.2 156.8 77.9 70.5 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 24.3 33.0 33.4 159.4 83.0 73.3 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 24.5 48.0 35.2 236.0 93.0 84.7 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------