***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.4 -1.4 27.0 26.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 26.9 27.3 26.3 -1.5 24.5 26.0 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.4 27.3 26.6 -1.3 29.1 28.6 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 20.2 20.4 25.1 -1.4 29.5 27.4 20.5 21.2 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.6 25.0 -1.5 26.6 26.4 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.5 26.4 23.3 -0.8 32.8 35.6 26.4 27.3 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 26.9 27.3 26.1 -1.6 23.9 24.7 27.6 28.2 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 15.7 15.8 23.3 -1.3 30.5 28.7 15.9 16.3 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.2 25.3 -1.4 27.2 26.6 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 27.1 27.0 23.9 -1.4 29.3 27.6 27.1 28.0 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.3 27.2 24.7 -1.3 30.8 29.0 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.4 24.5 -1.2 31.8 31.1 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.5 24.3 -1.0 32.6 33.5 27.5 28.6 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 27.0 27.2 24.6 -1.6 21.5 23.9 27.3 27.7 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.5 28.6 26.4 -1.0 32.3 33.9 28.6 29.2 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 28.1 28.0 24.7 -1.1 31.3 31.3 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 26.3 26.3 25.8 -1.6 20.1 23.6 27.0 27.5 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 26.3 26.2 23.0 -1.4 28.4 27.1 26.3 27.1 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 26.6 26.9 26.4 -1.5 26.0 27.1 27.1 27.7 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 21.8 22.1 21.0 -1.3 29.4 27.5 22.3 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 27.3 27.3 26.1 -1.5 26.0 26.5 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.8 -1.6 22.7 24.8 27.6 27.9 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 27.0 27.4 26.2 -1.4 26.6 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.8 26.9 24.7 -1.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.5 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 27.2 27.5 25.1 -1.5 25.7 25.9 27.8 28.4 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 27.3 27.3 24.2 -1.1 31.0 32.0 27.4 28.3 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 26.7 26.9 25.6 -1.4 25.9 25.8 27.4 27.9 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 28.3 28.4 25.8 -1.1 31.2 31.1 28.7 29.3 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 21.3 21.8 22.0 -1.3 28.1 27.2 21.8 22.2 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 26.9 27.2 26.5 -1.5 26.0 27.0 27.3 28.0 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------