***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 28.3 -0.9 44.7 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.6 28.3 -0.8 45.3 41.9 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.1 28.6 -0.7 45.2 42.7 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.1 27.0 -1.1 37.2 38.5 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.3 26.7 -1.2 36.2 37.7 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.4 24.8 -0.7 41.6 43.1 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.5 28.1 -0.9 43.3 40.7 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.3 25.0 -1.0 37.9 39.6 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.8 26.9 -1.1 36.9 38.7 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.9 25.5 -1.1 38.2 39.0 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 27.5 27.7 26.3 -1.0 38.1 39.9 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.3 26.2 -0.9 38.3 41.1 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.0 25.8 -0.8 38.5 41.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.2 27.8 26.3 -1.0 41.2 39.7 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.7 28.1 -0.6 43.4 44.2 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 30.3 28.6 26.3 -0.9 38.3 40.7 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.1 27.8 -0.9 43.3 40.7 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.1 26.7 24.6 -1.0 39.9 39.7 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.3 28.5 -0.7 46.2 42.7 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 22.3 22.6 -1.1 37.9 39.5 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.8 27.9 -1.0 38.3 39.7 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.7 27.9 -0.8 45.2 42.0 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.7 28.2 -0.7 46.1 42.5 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.0 27.9 26.5 -0.9 42.9 41.1 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.9 28.4 26.9 -1.0 38.7 39.9 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 27.5 27.9 25.9 -0.9 37.7 40.4 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.6 27.4 -0.9 42.7 40.6 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.4 29.6 27.5 -0.9 39.7 40.9 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.3 23.6 -1.0 39.4 40.1 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.3 28.5 -0.8 45.7 42.1 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------