***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.0 -1.5 31.7 32.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.4 26.1 -1.4 32.4 33.4 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 26.9 28.3 26.2 -1.3 32.9 34.4 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.1 19.4 24.5 -1.6 25.3 30.5 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 27.0 27.3 24.3 -1.6 25.0 30.5 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 25.3 25.6 22.3 -1.3 29.1 33.7 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 26.8 27.4 25.9 -1.5 30.8 32.2 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.9 22.8 -1.5 26.9 31.8 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 26.7 27.2 24.6 -1.5 28.3 32.0 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 26.2 27.3 23.4 -1.5 27.6 32.0 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 26.8 26.9 23.9 -1.5 26.5 32.0 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 25.9 26.4 23.8 -1.4 29.4 32.7 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.2 23.3 -1.4 29.8 33.0 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 26.7 27.8 24.5 -1.3 32.1 34.1 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.3 25.5 -1.2 30.5 34.3 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.2 27.6 23.7 -1.5 27.2 32.3 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 26.5 26.2 25.8 -1.4 32.2 33.0 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 25.6 26.6 22.7 -1.3 30.3 33.6 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 26.5 27.6 26.2 -1.3 33.0 34.2 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 21.0 20.8 20.6 -1.3 26.7 33.0 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 26.8 27.5 25.5 -1.5 30.0 32.5 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 27.1 26.9 25.9 -1.3 34.5 34.6 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.8 26.0 -1.3 33.8 34.7 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 26.2 27.5 24.4 -1.2 33.2 34.4 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 26.8 26.8 24.5 -1.5 27.7 31.2 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 26.9 26.8 23.2 -1.6 27.4 31.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 26.8 27.3 25.1 -1.5 30.4 31.7 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 26.9 27.4 25.0 -1.4 27.1 32.5 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 20.5 21.4 21.8 -1.2 29.9 34.5 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 26.8 27.3 26.2 -1.4 32.7 33.4 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------