***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 -2.7 17.1 21.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 24.8 24.1 23.5 -3.2 11.6 17.3 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 24.9 24.3 24.0 -2.7 17.8 22.9 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 18.0 18.0 22.7 -2.1 26.8 28.3 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 25.5 25.0 23.0 -2.3 24.1 27.6 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.5 21.8 -1.1 38.7 39.1 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 24.8 24.1 23.5 -3.1 11.6 16.8 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.0 21.3 -2.1 29.2 29.8 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 25.1 24.2 23.6 -2.4 22.1 26.5 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 24.9 24.3 22.0 -2.2 25.7 28.4 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 25.2 24.8 22.9 -2.0 28.5 30.1 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.5 24.7 22.6 -1.8 31.3 32.6 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.1 25.7 23.0 -1.4 34.4 37.0 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 24.5 24.0 22.0 -3.2 13.7 17.9 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 26.6 26.5 25.1 -1.7 30.3 31.6 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 26.7 26.2 23.2 -1.6 32.7 34.0 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 24.3 22.7 23.0 -3.2 10.2 15.5 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 24.2 24.0 20.8 -2.4 23.8 26.4 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 24.6 23.8 23.5 -3.1 12.8 18.0 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 20.1 19.7 19.1 -2.2 26.1 28.0 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 24.8 24.2 24.0 -2.7 19.3 24.4 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 24.1 23.4 22.8 -3.3 8.9 13.9 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 24.9 24.3 23.4 -3.0 14.8 19.0 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 24.3 24.2 22.3 -2.7 20.4 23.3 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 25.0 24.5 22.9 -2.6 18.8 22.9 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 27.8 25.9 22.6 -1.4 36.2 37.3 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 24.5 24.0 23.3 -2.7 16.5 20.9 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 26.9 26.9 23.9 -1.7 31.3 32.0 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 19.2 18.7 20.0 -2.4 23.0 26.1 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 24.8 24.1 23.8 -3.0 13.9 18.6 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------