***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 17.3 -0.4 38.7 38.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.8 17.2 -0.5 34.7 36.2 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.0 17.3 -0.3 40.8 40.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.8 11.8 15.6 -0.5 32.1 35.4 11.9 12.5 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.7 15.4 -0.5 32.8 34.1 13.7 14.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.5 13.8 -0.2 38.5 43.1 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.9 14.9 17.2 -0.6 33.6 35.3 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.5 7.5 13.3 -0.5 29.2 33.0 7.7 8.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.6 15.8 -0.4 34.3 36.2 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.5 14.1 -0.5 32.0 35.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.3 15.0 -0.4 32.6 35.6 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.5 14.3 -0.5 32.0 34.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.9 14.1 -0.3 35.5 38.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.3 15.5 -0.6 34.3 34.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 16.9 -0.2 42.7 44.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 14.8 -0.3 34.5 37.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.4 16.8 -0.5 35.0 34.8 15.3 16.2 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.2 -0.5 32.1 34.3 13.0 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.9 17.2 -0.5 36.7 38.0 14.8 15.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.7 9.0 11.3 -0.6 28.7 31.1 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.6 16.7 -0.4 37.0 37.7 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.5 16.7 -0.6 34.1 34.8 14.5 15.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.7 17.0 -0.4 40.0 39.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 15.4 -0.4 37.2 37.3 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.8 16.0 -0.4 35.0 37.1 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.6 13.9 -0.4 33.7 35.7 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.3 14.8 16.6 -0.4 36.9 38.2 14.5 15.1 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.8 16.2 -0.3 35.7 38.9 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.6 11.6 12.5 -0.5 31.4 33.8 11.6 12.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.3 17.4 -0.5 35.8 37.5 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------