***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 17.7 0.0 48.4 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.6 17.8 0.0 50.0 50.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.7 17.8 0.2 51.7 54.2 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.6 16.0 -0.1 45.7 48.6 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.7 15.7 -0.2 42.5 48.1 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.9 14.1 0.2 56.3 55.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.0 17.7 -0.1 47.3 49.3 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.4 13.9 -0.1 48.3 50.3 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.9 16.1 0.0 46.3 50.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.9 14.5 0.0 47.4 51.0 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.9 15.4 0.0 49.7 51.1 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 14.8 0.0 49.4 50.9 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.0 14.3 0.0 48.5 51.1 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.8 16.0 0.1 52.6 52.7 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.5 17.1 0.2 54.9 56.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.5 15.1 0.0 48.7 51.0 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.4 17.4 0.0 49.5 50.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.4 13.7 0.0 50.4 51.6 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.1 14.8 17.8 0.1 51.9 52.4 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.4 11.9 -0.2 50.2 48.9 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.8 17.1 0.0 47.4 51.0 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.8 17.4 0.1 50.8 52.4 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.8 17.5 0.2 53.4 53.9 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.6 15.9 0.2 54.0 53.9 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.7 16.3 0.0 46.2 50.0 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.5 14.2 -0.1 48.8 48.7 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.6 17.0 0.0 48.2 51.1 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.3 16.5 0.0 50.7 52.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.0 13.0 -0.1 51.2 50.4 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.4 14.9 17.9 0.0 49.2 51.0 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------