***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 -1.0 26.5 31.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.6 14.9 16.6 -1.1 28.4 31.2 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 16.2 16.6 16.6 -0.9 27.7 33.2 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.0 11.6 14.8 -1.2 19.6 28.1 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.0 14.5 -1.2 21.8 28.7 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.0 12.3 12.9 -0.9 26.7 30.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.0 15.5 16.6 -1.1 26.4 30.1 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 7.3 7.2 12.6 -1.2 20.6 27.0 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 14.4 14.4 14.9 -1.1 25.0 30.5 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 14.2 14.1 13.3 -1.1 22.3 28.8 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 13.6 14.2 14.1 -1.0 24.6 30.2 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.8 11.5 13.6 -1.1 21.2 28.1 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 13.3 13.6 13.2 -0.9 24.3 29.9 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 14.6 15.3 14.7 -1.2 22.2 28.6 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 15.4 15.2 15.7 -1.0 25.5 31.7 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.4 13.9 -1.0 24.0 29.7 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.2 16.3 -1.0 28.9 31.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 12.4 12.6 12.6 -1.1 21.2 28.4 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 14.6 14.9 16.6 -1.0 29.1 31.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 8.3 8.3 10.7 -1.2 20.0 26.7 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.2 15.9 -1.0 26.8 31.8 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.1 13.9 16.2 -1.1 30.0 31.3 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.3 16.3 -1.0 27.3 31.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.6 14.6 -1.0 25.5 30.9 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 14.4 14.4 15.1 -1.1 24.2 29.8 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 13.2 13.1 13.1 -1.1 23.7 28.1 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 14.1 14.8 15.7 -1.0 25.2 30.2 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.2 -1.1 23.1 29.7 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 11.3 11.2 11.9 -1.1 21.7 27.7 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 15.0 15.3 16.7 -1.0 26.0 31.1 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------