***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 -0.3 46.2 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.2 -0.8 36.5 37.4 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.9 16.6 -0.5 46.2 42.8 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.1 15.2 -0.2 46.8 47.0 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.6 15.2 -0.3 46.9 44.3 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.2 13.4 0.0 49.8 49.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.2 16.3 -0.7 37.2 38.6 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.7 7.0 12.6 -0.6 37.5 39.1 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.2 15.7 -0.3 46.5 44.3 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.1 13.7 -0.4 41.8 41.5 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.9 14.5 -0.4 41.7 41.7 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.8 13.5 -0.5 40.0 40.5 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.9 13.6 13.9 -0.1 47.5 46.5 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.8 14.7 -1.0 34.7 35.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.5 17.1 0.1 55.3 53.1 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.1 14.6 -0.2 45.7 46.4 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.7 15.7 -0.9 32.8 34.4 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.5 12.5 -0.7 36.2 37.6 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.2 -0.8 37.5 38.2 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.4 10.1 -0.9 31.9 34.1 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.5 16.5 -0.4 45.3 43.4 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.6 -1.1 29.1 32.3 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.6 16.1 -0.7 39.7 39.5 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.3 14.7 -0.7 38.6 38.6 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.3 15.9 -0.3 46.9 45.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.2 13.4 -0.1 48.2 47.1 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.0 16.3 -0.2 47.1 46.4 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.4 16.0 -0.1 48.2 48.0 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.8 11.7 -0.8 34.6 35.9 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.3 16.5 -0.7 38.7 39.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------