***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 71.3 93.8 64.4 170.0 86.7 72.7 33.7 42.9 63.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 63.7 93.6 60.5 154.6 85.4 70.5 37.6 43.2 54.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 69.5 90.6 60.7 157.1 81.6 70.8 35.4 42.5 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 70.8 77.6 59.9 144.4 75.5 65.9 33.3 52.6 70.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 50.1 67.6 59.9 137.2 74.1 63.6 40.8 45.4 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.7 60.4 69.8 140.5 76.4 65.2 32.7 38.0 54.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 67.6 81.0 59.9 151.6 81.7 68.4 33.8 44.8 53.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 80.9 94.4 60.6 119.4 70.1 59.3 64.7 71.3 86.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 45.8 62.2 59.1 130.9 74.9 61.1 30.4 41.3 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 66.7 84.6 66.8 122.6 72.3 59.9 48.7 58.3 81.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 41.3 57.1 50.3 124.2 72.0 59.3 26.4 34.5 55.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 51.6 67.2 45.3 118.8 68.5 58.0 36.7 44.3 66.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 34.4 47.8 53.9 129.9 76.3 61.0 20.1 30.5 38.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 88.5 97.4 74.7 144.1 80.8 71.2 57.5 73.3 83.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 49.6 54.9 51.7 148.4 76.7 68.3 18.9 33.5 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 37.6 47.0 53.8 137.0 75.8 62.4 23.3 34.7 44.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 60.0 71.4 56.1 138.1 78.4 65.3 31.0 36.8 61.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 63.8 79.3 77.4 124.2 72.0 60.8 44.9 57.1 69.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 76.4 98.5 60.1 152.6 83.9 70.6 35.3 43.2 71.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 64.7 69.0 76.5 123.8 70.2 60.2 53.1 62.1 68.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 59.2 71.9 58.6 153.4 80.2 67.8 28.0 41.4 60.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 67.5 80.7 58.8 138.9 78.2 67.0 36.3 43.2 55.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 69.4 76.6 60.3 145.5 80.5 69.1 42.6 55.3 66.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 89.5 98.6 70.9 138.0 77.5 66.9 53.0 64.4 76.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 72.1 87.2 71.7 154.6 81.1 69.3 28.8 40.0 76.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 44.8 47.8 42.1 128.2 71.5 62.9 20.6 27.8 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 80.9 98.4 71.8 157.3 82.8 69.9 41.4 55.0 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 47.3 51.5 54.3 144.5 76.1 65.7 24.4 30.6 41.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 75.4 102.1 78.2 124.0 71.2 60.7 60.5 65.3 92.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 73.8 107.2 61.9 159.9 86.9 72.0 40.6 46.7 73.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------