***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 22.5 4.8 108.1 76.2 52.4 3.0 6.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.9 5.0 85.2 69.1 50.8 3.1 9.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.7 11.0 4.8 95.3 71.0 49.7 3.3 6.6 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 20.5 7.3 171.1 81.8 54.3 2.1 6.2 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.5 21.5 6.8 148.0 78.6 53.1 2.3 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 16.9 11.8 183.9 80.6 56.5 1.1 4.9 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.9 5.5 100.5 71.8 52.4 3.0 4.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.5 25.1 9.3 125.0 75.3 53.5 5.3 9.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.4 16.3 6.2 119.4 74.2 50.6 3.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.0 16.7 9.0 115.4 73.2 51.6 1.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.6 17.7 6.2 130.1 79.1 51.6 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 30.9 7.0 150.2 81.7 54.5 0.1 6.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.2 12.7 8.9 197.9 84.3 57.9 0.2 0.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.6 7.9 81.4 66.1 46.7 1.8 7.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 16.2 7.1 172.4 84.2 56.5 0.9 2.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 0.9 11.3 7.1 173.4 83.1 54.0 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.9 5.9 92.6 69.9 49.8 3.6 8.2 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.3 16.0 11.3 106.8 71.6 49.5 2.4 7.6 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 15.4 4.6 75.9 66.2 49.3 2.8 9.0 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 14.2 13.0 120.0 70.0 53.1 2.5 5.8 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 10.2 4.7 114.4 73.4 50.2 3.1 6.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.7 5.0 68.4 58.5 46.4 3.4 7.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.9 4.7 71.3 64.0 47.6 2.8 7.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.3 13.5 8.2 95.1 69.8 47.5 4.3 7.6 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.8 24.4 7.3 142.9 79.0 52.4 2.4 7.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.5 19.1 6.6 182.8 82.2 56.0 0.0 1.4 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 17.2 6.8 121.5 76.6 51.3 2.6 5.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.5 16.0 7.2 183.8 83.9 54.9 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 19.1 12.3 106.0 69.2 49.7 3.6 11.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 14.9 4.9 89.1 70.4 50.8 3.1 5.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------