***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.5 17.7 9.2 153.2 77.7 55.4 1.1 3.3 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 14.3 8.3 123.8 73.8 54.1 2.3 6.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.9 17.1 8.7 140.3 77.9 53.1 4.1 6.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.1 32.7 9.4 126.5 78.2 53.2 3.1 14.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.3 24.2 9.8 132.4 79.2 53.5 5.2 10.4 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 28.5 15.1 177.9 81.6 60.9 4.9 9.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.8 11.8 8.9 123.7 74.8 53.4 1.8 4.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 28.1 39.6 12.3 135.2 75.7 55.5 18.1 23.6 35.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.9 24.1 10.2 134.0 78.5 51.6 5.0 7.9 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.0 32.4 13.0 132.3 76.4 52.7 8.8 14.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.5 18.2 8.9 131.6 76.3 53.3 4.4 11.1 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 23.9 8.4 135.1 77.7 57.5 6.2 10.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 30.3 10.8 168.2 82.8 61.4 4.4 8.8 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.4 27.5 11.2 116.0 71.1 54.3 5.9 14.6 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 9.6 8.2 132.3 78.9 56.7 1.2 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.3 23.1 9.7 154.4 78.6 58.1 5.5 13.1 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.1 13.6 8.4 115.8 73.8 53.2 2.2 3.7 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.0 32.8 16.1 137.7 74.0 54.2 8.5 16.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 24.5 7.8 123.7 74.9 53.9 3.6 8.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.3 27.8 18.2 152.2 75.5 58.9 7.8 18.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.9 21.9 8.8 141.1 78.5 52.8 4.7 6.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.3 14.5 8.3 115.5 74.1 53.9 5.2 8.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.0 22.1 7.7 120.7 75.5 53.1 3.1 7.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.3 22.0 12.1 127.6 72.3 53.4 6.1 10.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.5 18.7 11.7 148.8 75.7 56.9 2.7 5.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 22.8 8.7 196.2 85.0 60.6 3.8 7.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 27.0 11.5 150.6 76.8 56.6 2.4 5.4 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.2 22.3 8.6 127.5 77.9 55.2 2.9 7.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.1 37.2 16.4 140.5 73.9 55.4 17.6 20.1 32.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.0 17.7 8.5 130.5 76.3 53.4 2.2 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------