***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 31.5 16.2 175.5 75.5 56.0 4.3 11.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 29.1 16.9 186.6 82.6 55.1 6.0 13.0 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.3 20.1 16.0 171.9 76.5 54.3 3.1 9.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.1 15.1 128.0 69.9 46.4 4.2 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.9 13.2 16.8 133.5 71.8 51.2 0.8 4.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.5 11.2 17.9 102.1 68.6 50.2 2.1 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.0 23.8 16.7 171.5 76.7 53.3 6.1 12.8 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 16.2 15.9 100.9 64.2 48.8 6.0 11.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 14.3 17.0 126.1 67.1 50.1 2.7 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 14.1 18.0 109.1 66.0 48.4 6.9 10.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.3 13.4 109.0 71.8 48.2 3.3 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.5 12.0 103.5 67.9 47.2 3.7 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.6 14.3 108.5 69.0 49.2 1.3 5.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.4 36.6 20.7 157.9 74.1 56.5 5.5 11.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.6 9.8 11.2 110.9 70.9 46.6 0.8 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.8 7.3 14.4 115.3 73.9 49.1 3.0 3.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.1 24.8 14.3 148.5 76.6 52.3 1.7 4.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 17.4 20.9 111.2 64.2 49.5 7.8 12.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.9 39.3 16.3 184.0 82.6 54.7 2.4 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.0 21.7 20.8 107.3 61.1 52.8 10.1 15.3 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.5 15.0 147.4 70.5 51.9 6.9 12.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.6 17.1 14.6 152.9 76.8 51.8 3.1 8.1 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 23.3 16.3 174.3 79.7 53.8 4.7 8.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.1 24.3 19.3 137.4 71.5 52.3 5.8 12.3 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.8 18.4 143.7 68.8 52.6 3.3 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.5 11.3 104.4 69.7 52.0 1.0 4.3 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 26.6 18.9 159.9 73.8 55.1 6.3 13.7 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.5 10.3 13.5 120.3 72.7 47.3 0.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.5 21.6 111.7 62.3 51.3 8.2 14.0 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.8 32.0 17.3 189.1 82.0 55.4 5.8 8.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------