***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.8 16.4 34.2 187.6 83.9 72.9 5.2 7.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 18.4 24.2 30.3 173.2 84.2 71.9 8.3 13.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 20.3 27.4 31.2 172.7 81.9 72.3 9.4 12.8 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 13.0 14.6 28.0 156.5 78.3 71.3 4.8 9.5 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 15.8 17.8 26.4 139.4 73.5 69.4 2.8 4.8 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 10.4 14.1 25.0 146.2 77.9 69.2 0.9 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 14.3 17.7 28.8 168.4 79.9 70.1 6.2 8.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 18.2 28.5 23.1 125.3 70.5 65.2 3.8 14.9 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.7 13.8 25.7 136.2 73.3 67.0 2.7 5.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 16.4 19.5 26.7 132.0 72.2 67.0 4.2 9.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 10.5 12.7 21.8 131.0 74.4 67.1 2.7 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 8.5 16.7 17.9 115.4 70.0 63.6 0.5 6.4 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.3 11.2 20.0 114.6 72.8 64.0 1.3 6.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 27.9 36.3 34.9 179.7 82.3 77.0 10.3 15.0 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 9.5 14.4 25.4 175.3 84.2 74.8 1.0 2.3 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.3 22.6 137.9 76.3 69.3 0.8 3.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 14.6 23.5 27.5 158.5 81.1 68.5 5.2 10.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 17.4 18.4 29.0 136.5 72.8 66.9 7.7 11.9 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.2 18.4 31.4 173.0 82.8 72.5 8.6 12.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 11.8 18.8 24.5 125.1 70.9 64.4 8.3 10.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 20.6 25.4 30.1 169.2 79.7 72.9 4.8 9.1 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.7 26.2 31.0 168.1 83.3 70.9 5.7 8.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 21.8 30.8 31.8 165.1 79.3 71.6 9.2 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 31.0 37.8 31.4 161.4 78.8 72.4 11.7 19.0 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 17.4 19.7 34.3 166.7 78.3 71.9 5.7 11.4 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.7 13.1 15.6 111.3 66.2 61.8 1.2 6.0 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.8 20.7 34.5 167.5 79.3 70.4 4.9 8.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 8.7 11.5 25.0 160.1 80.1 72.6 1.6 3.3 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 21.6 22.6 28.0 136.1 73.1 67.0 13.7 16.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 20.9 26.7 31.3 177.9 83.4 72.8 10.3 14.4 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------