***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 28.2 27.9 28.2 -0.3 44.4 44.1 27.7 28.0 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.1 27.9 28.6 0.0 46.4 50.3 27.5 27.9 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.9 28.2 -0.4 43.1 43.0 27.4 28.2 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 20.5 20.2 26.1 -1.2 31.5 30.4 20.2 21.3 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.8 26.4 -0.8 38.3 37.2 27.7 28.3 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 26.5 26.3 24.2 -0.9 34.0 33.9 26.3 27.3 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.0 28.6 0.2 47.1 52.6 27.6 28.1 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 24.6 -0.8 39.6 36.4 15.7 16.3 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.5 26.8 -0.7 39.3 39.2 27.2 28.4 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.2 25.3 -0.7 40.2 38.1 26.9 28.0 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.5 26.0 -0.7 41.2 39.2 27.2 28.2 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.2 25.7 -0.8 39.9 36.9 26.2 27.4 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 28.9 27.8 25.3 -0.9 39.9 35.8 27.6 28.7 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.4 26.3 -0.5 43.4 42.2 27.2 27.7 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 28.3 28.1 26.7 -1.5 26.0 24.7 28.4 29.1 29.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.1 25.8 -0.8 37.5 36.4 27.9 29.3 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.3 28.4 0.2 50.5 53.7 27.0 27.3 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.5 24.5 -0.6 41.5 39.3 26.1 27.1 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.5 28.5 -0.1 46.1 48.1 27.1 27.7 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.4 22.5 -0.7 41.0 37.1 22.0 22.5 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.6 27.6 -0.7 39.6 38.7 27.4 28.1 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.7 28.0 0.0 47.6 49.7 27.5 27.8 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.7 28.0 -0.3 46.3 45.3 27.5 27.7 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.1 26.3 -0.5 42.0 40.9 26.8 27.3 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.8 26.6 -0.7 38.9 37.7 27.7 28.1 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.3 25.1 -1.1 33.0 32.0 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.6 27.4 -0.4 43.5 43.2 27.2 27.8 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 28.3 28.0 26.4 -1.4 27.4 27.5 28.4 29.2 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.8 23.6 -0.6 42.3 40.0 21.6 22.1 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.8 28.7 -0.1 45.5 48.7 27.4 27.9 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------