***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.7 30.0 -0.1 49.0 50.7 27.2 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.3 30.5 0.3 59.8 55.3 27.9 29.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.8 30.0 -0.2 46.7 49.8 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.2 28.0 -1.0 35.3 40.0 21.1 21.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.5 28.9 28.0 -0.7 41.8 44.3 28.4 29.1 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.5 27.1 25.7 -0.9 33.8 39.4 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.4 29.3 30.5 0.4 61.2 56.3 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.4 26.1 -0.7 39.3 44.1 15.8 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.3 28.2 -0.6 43.0 45.9 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 26.9 27.5 26.8 -0.6 41.9 45.7 27.2 27.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.1 28.4 27.6 -0.5 44.1 46.2 27.8 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 26.4 27.5 27.3 -0.7 39.7 43.8 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.0 26.8 -0.9 34.5 40.5 28.0 28.6 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.3 27.8 -0.2 45.5 50.3 27.5 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 28.9 29.2 28.4 -1.2 31.3 35.7 29.3 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.3 29.0 27.4 -0.8 37.3 42.4 28.8 29.3 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.7 29.2 30.2 0.6 62.4 56.9 27.1 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 25.9 26.7 26.0 -0.5 43.0 46.6 26.5 27.3 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.8 28.7 30.3 0.2 56.2 54.0 27.4 28.4 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 21.4 22.4 23.8 -0.7 38.6 43.8 22.0 23.0 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.0 28.1 29.1 -0.5 41.3 46.3 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.0 29.6 29.9 0.3 59.7 54.7 27.4 29.1 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.9 29.7 0.0 52.3 52.2 27.2 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.4 27.8 27.8 -0.4 44.5 48.4 26.9 28.1 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.6 28.2 -0.6 41.8 45.5 27.9 28.9 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.7 26.7 -1.2 28.7 36.5 27.9 28.6 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.8 29.1 -0.2 48.2 49.9 27.6 28.8 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.9 29.0 28.2 -1.2 32.6 37.2 29.0 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.3 22.0 24.9 -0.5 41.9 46.6 21.6 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.9 30.5 0.2 57.1 54.0 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------