***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.4 28.9 -0.3 45.9 47.9 26.1 27.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.4 29.4 0.1 52.9 52.5 26.8 27.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 27.7 26.7 28.9 -0.4 44.0 45.9 26.2 27.2 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.5 19.2 26.9 -1.3 38.0 36.3 18.9 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.7 26.8 26.9 -0.9 39.1 40.0 26.5 28.2 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 25.1 25.8 24.5 -1.2 36.2 36.6 25.6 26.5 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.9 29.4 0.3 54.3 54.2 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.9 25.2 -0.9 36.8 40.1 14.7 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.1 26.7 27.2 -0.8 39.1 41.6 26.2 27.6 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.2 26.6 25.8 -0.8 39.3 41.3 25.9 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.7 26.5 -0.8 38.7 41.4 26.4 27.5 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.9 25.9 26.2 -0.9 36.5 39.9 25.7 27.2 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 26.5 27.1 25.6 -1.2 34.2 37.8 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.7 26.5 26.9 -0.5 44.7 45.2 26.4 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 27.8 27.2 27.2 -1.6 31.2 32.3 27.3 29.2 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 29.2 27.8 26.2 -1.1 36.1 38.4 27.7 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.8 29.2 0.4 56.9 55.9 25.9 26.9 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.0 25.1 -0.7 40.6 42.0 25.3 26.6 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 27.3 26.8 29.2 0.0 50.3 50.7 26.2 26.8 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.6 23.0 -0.8 37.2 40.7 21.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 28.4 26.5 28.1 -0.8 40.5 42.1 26.3 27.9 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.8 28.9 0.1 53.0 52.8 26.4 27.6 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.6 26.8 28.7 -0.2 45.8 48.4 26.2 27.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.4 26.3 26.8 -0.6 42.7 43.5 26.1 27.0 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.7 27.6 27.2 -0.7 43.3 42.3 26.4 28.4 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 26.2 26.5 25.5 -1.4 30.8 34.5 26.6 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.2 28.1 -0.3 46.4 47.1 26.1 27.7 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.8 27.4 27.0 -1.5 33.0 33.4 27.4 29.1 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.4 24.1 -0.7 40.6 42.2 21.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.0 29.4 0.0 50.4 50.9 26.6 27.0 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------