***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.6 28.1 0.1 53.9 52.8 28.6 29.5 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.9 28.4 0.4 58.3 56.6 27.9 28.8 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.3 29.0 28.0 0.0 51.6 51.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.7 26.1 -0.7 38.7 43.0 20.3 21.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.2 -0.4 45.2 47.3 27.8 30.0 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.5 23.9 -0.5 42.0 44.6 26.1 27.5 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.3 28.6 0.7 62.1 59.1 27.6 29.0 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.3 24.5 -0.4 43.3 46.5 15.6 16.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.2 29.0 26.5 -0.3 48.2 49.2 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.8 28.2 25.1 -0.3 46.2 48.1 27.0 28.5 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.0 29.0 25.7 -0.3 47.1 48.4 27.1 29.1 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 25.8 27.2 25.5 -0.4 43.7 46.7 26.3 27.7 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.4 24.9 -0.5 43.1 45.6 27.4 29.2 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.4 26.0 -0.3 47.0 48.3 27.6 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.7 26.4 -1.0 38.1 39.5 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.4 25.4 -0.5 44.0 46.1 27.9 29.9 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.4 28.7 28.3 0.6 62.9 58.2 27.3 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.1 27.9 24.4 -0.3 45.4 48.4 26.0 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.7 28.7 28.3 0.2 55.5 54.3 27.4 28.3 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.9 22.3 -0.4 47.0 47.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.8 27.3 -0.2 49.0 49.3 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 26.7 28.8 27.9 0.2 58.0 53.9 28.1 28.7 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.9 28.7 27.7 0.0 52.3 51.6 27.1 28.6 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 26.5 28.1 26.0 -0.2 46.9 49.1 26.9 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.8 26.4 -0.2 49.5 49.2 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 27.2 27.4 24.8 -0.7 41.3 43.7 26.9 28.5 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.0 27.3 0.2 54.2 53.1 27.5 28.9 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 27.6 28.2 26.2 -0.9 37.7 40.4 27.8 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.8 23.4 -0.2 47.0 48.7 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.2 29.0 28.5 0.3 57.1 55.6 27.4 28.8 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------