***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 25.6 26.2 25.9 -1.1 34.8 35.6 26.1 27.3 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.4 26.1 26.1 -0.8 37.5 38.8 26.0 26.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.0 -1.0 34.2 36.8 25.5 27.2 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 17.7 17.7 23.5 -1.8 23.3 27.5 18.5 19.8 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.0 24.5 -1.2 31.0 34.4 26.3 27.6 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 24.8 25.5 22.6 -1.0 33.3 35.5 25.4 26.6 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.5 26.1 26.1 -0.7 38.0 38.6 25.7 27.0 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.0 22.7 -1.2 34.3 36.0 13.9 16.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 25.4 25.2 25.3 -1.1 34.8 36.1 25.1 27.0 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.0 23.5 -1.1 33.9 36.3 24.9 26.7 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.4 24.4 -1.1 32.8 36.1 25.4 26.7 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.4 24.8 23.8 -1.1 34.2 36.1 24.8 25.7 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.1 24.0 -0.9 35.7 37.9 26.0 27.1 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.1 26.0 24.6 -0.9 36.1 38.9 25.6 26.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 25.9 25.9 24.9 -2.3 20.0 22.5 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 26.1 26.6 24.3 -1.0 34.2 36.3 26.5 27.7 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.0 25.9 25.8 -0.8 40.2 38.9 25.4 26.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 27.0 24.5 22.6 -1.0 34.2 38.1 24.4 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.8 26.1 -0.9 37.2 38.4 25.6 26.6 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.9 20.6 20.8 -1.0 39.3 38.6 20.3 22.4 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 25.4 25.7 25.8 -1.2 33.2 34.6 25.7 27.3 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.2 25.5 -0.9 38.7 37.9 26.0 26.9 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 25.4 25.9 25.8 -1.0 36.5 37.6 25.4 26.8 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 24.8 25.1 24.4 -1.0 32.7 38.1 25.2 26.5 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 25.4 25.5 24.4 -1.4 28.4 31.8 25.7 27.1 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.2 23.5 -1.2 34.8 35.5 26.0 27.3 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 25.0 25.0 25.1 -1.2 31.7 34.1 25.4 27.2 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.3 -1.9 23.3 26.6 26.9 28.8 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 19.9 21.9 -0.9 37.8 39.8 19.6 22.3 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 27.7 25.8 26.2 -0.9 36.7 38.3 25.6 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------