***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.5 17.7 -0.2 39.2 43.0 15.4 15.6 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.1 18.0 0.0 45.4 49.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.9 17.6 -0.3 40.1 42.9 16.7 17.1 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.9 15.5 -0.7 29.6 31.4 11.9 12.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 15.5 -0.5 36.9 37.9 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.5 13.9 -0.5 33.6 36.8 12.5 13.1 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.6 18.1 0.0 48.7 50.1 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.0 13.7 -0.4 40.1 41.3 7.8 8.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.8 15.8 -0.5 37.0 38.7 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.8 14.3 -0.4 39.9 41.1 14.7 15.1 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.6 15.2 -0.4 40.2 41.7 14.3 15.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.5 14.6 -0.4 37.6 39.8 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.9 14.3 -0.6 32.5 35.1 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.5 15.8 -0.4 37.0 40.3 15.4 15.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 15.6 15.4 16.1 -1.1 19.1 24.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.9 15.0 -0.5 36.8 37.4 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 17.6 0.0 52.4 50.2 15.3 16.2 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.2 13.5 -0.4 37.4 40.9 13.0 13.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.2 17.8 -0.1 44.3 48.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 11.8 -0.4 39.2 41.0 9.2 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.7 16.8 -0.5 36.4 37.7 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.1 17.5 0.0 51.4 49.1 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.7 17.4 -0.2 40.9 45.0 14.4 14.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.0 15.5 -0.4 38.2 40.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.8 16.1 -0.5 36.4 37.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.4 13.6 14.1 -0.7 29.4 31.7 13.6 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.7 16.9 -0.3 39.6 41.8 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 13.5 13.4 15.8 -0.9 24.8 27.9 13.6 14.3 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.0 12.9 -0.3 40.9 42.9 11.7 12.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.5 18.1 -0.1 43.5 48.1 15.2 15.7 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------