***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.8 19.0 0.1 55.9 54.3 14.6 15.3 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.8 19.3 0.4 61.7 57.9 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.6 18.8 -0.1 52.2 52.3 16.7 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.2 16.8 -0.6 37.6 41.8 11.7 13.0 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.5 16.6 -0.4 42.4 45.7 13.0 13.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.6 15.2 -0.4 41.6 43.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.7 19.5 0.4 65.7 58.7 15.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.0 14.6 -0.6 37.6 41.1 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.8 16.8 -0.4 43.6 46.6 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 15.2 -0.4 41.4 44.0 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.4 16.3 -0.3 42.7 46.6 14.0 14.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.5 15.7 -0.5 37.2 41.8 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.3 15.4 -0.4 38.8 42.0 13.2 13.7 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.4 16.7 -0.3 44.1 46.9 15.2 15.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.7 17.3 -0.8 35.4 37.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.0 14.6 16.1 -0.4 38.8 43.3 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.5 18.9 0.5 66.6 59.4 15.6 16.4 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.6 14.5 -0.4 40.9 45.1 12.5 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.2 19.1 0.3 58.1 56.2 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.8 12.9 -0.4 39.0 44.0 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.6 17.9 -0.3 48.9 48.7 14.2 14.8 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.9 18.6 0.4 62.3 57.2 14.4 14.9 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 18.5 0.0 52.6 52.9 14.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.9 16.5 -0.3 43.5 46.8 14.8 15.1 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 17.2 -0.2 48.0 49.3 13.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.1 -0.7 32.1 37.4 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 18.1 0.0 55.8 53.5 14.4 15.4 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.2 17.1 -0.8 33.9 37.8 13.2 14.0 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.0 14.0 -0.3 43.1 46.9 11.6 12.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.6 19.4 0.3 60.5 56.9 15.2 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------