***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 18.2 0.0 54.2 51.3 14.7 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.3 18.7 0.4 57.6 56.9 14.1 14.7 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.6 18.1 0.0 51.2 50.0 16.0 16.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.4 16.1 -0.5 41.4 42.4 11.1 11.6 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.9 16.0 -0.2 46.2 46.3 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.3 14.4 -0.3 46.1 45.2 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 18.9 0.5 60.4 58.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.6 14.1 -0.3 47.1 46.1 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.9 16.2 -0.2 48.7 47.5 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.7 14.7 -0.2 49.2 47.5 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 15.7 -0.1 50.3 48.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 15.1 -0.3 47.0 45.8 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 14.7 -0.4 48.0 44.5 12.8 14.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.3 16.2 -0.2 45.1 47.6 14.7 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.1 16.5 -0.7 38.8 39.9 15.9 16.2 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 15.5 -0.3 47.6 45.9 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.0 18.5 0.6 61.3 59.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.3 14.0 -0.2 48.0 47.6 11.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 18.5 0.3 55.1 54.9 14.1 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.4 12.3 -0.3 44.1 45.5 8.4 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.4 17.2 -0.2 47.9 46.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.4 18.2 0.4 60.8 57.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.6 17.9 0.0 49.6 51.1 13.5 14.6 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 16.0 -0.1 48.4 47.8 14.5 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.9 16.6 -0.1 49.6 48.4 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.6 12.9 14.5 -0.6 36.6 40.7 12.8 13.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.9 17.4 0.1 54.7 51.9 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.8 16.4 -0.6 39.4 40.2 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 13.4 -0.1 49.5 48.5 11.3 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.4 18.8 0.3 55.9 55.4 14.2 15.2 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------