***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 13.8 13.5 15.9 -1.3 24.9 29.7 14.3 14.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 13.1 13.8 15.9 -1.1 26.9 31.7 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.9 -1.1 27.8 31.4 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 9.8 9.2 13.6 -1.6 19.9 24.7 10.2 11.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.2 14.2 -1.2 28.6 29.6 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 11.1 10.9 12.0 -1.3 24.7 26.5 11.6 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 13.5 13.8 15.9 -1.3 22.2 29.7 14.4 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.4 12.3 -0.8 32.7 35.9 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.7 -1.2 28.5 29.9 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.7 13.9 13.0 -0.9 31.6 33.9 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 13.5 13.3 13.7 -1.1 27.3 29.7 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.4 11.4 13.0 -0.9 29.5 33.6 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 12.1 12.5 12.9 -1.2 24.3 27.6 13.1 13.5 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.6 14.6 -0.9 31.4 34.8 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 14.3 13.5 14.5 -2.2 11.9 15.4 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.6 -1.2 25.9 28.2 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 14.0 14.6 15.3 -1.3 23.4 28.5 14.7 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.5 12.1 -0.8 33.7 35.6 12.4 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.0 -1.0 30.3 33.6 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.6 10.1 -0.8 35.9 35.9 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 13.4 13.2 15.5 -1.3 24.9 28.1 13.4 14.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.7 15.7 -1.0 30.4 32.7 13.7 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.8 -0.9 33.1 34.9 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.9 14.2 -1.0 29.3 33.4 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.6 -1.5 22.6 25.9 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.6 12.7 -1.0 27.9 31.1 12.7 13.2 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 12.6 12.5 15.1 -1.4 21.9 27.3 13.1 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 11.9 11.7 14.1 -1.8 18.0 21.3 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.6 11.5 -0.8 34.8 36.1 10.6 11.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.1 -1.1 26.7 31.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------