***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 51.8 52.5 55.4 105.7 58.5 55.6 35.1 44.0 63.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 49.7 53.8 51.2 108.3 61.7 55.3 39.7 43.2 56.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 55.6 63.6 63.4 122.1 66.6 62.7 34.0 50.8 63.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 56.6 63.7 55.3 113.5 64.3 59.1 33.3 52.6 69.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 48.8 70.5 62.2 130.8 70.3 65.6 39.8 45.4 55.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 42.7 51.0 57.7 111.5 64.1 60.8 33.1 39.5 51.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 53.5 52.1 50.7 109.2 59.4 54.9 35.1 47.5 62.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 114.9 139.2 80.4 149.5 79.0 73.2 66.4 73.5 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 48 52 100 54.7 60.1 70.9 136.6 73.4 68.0 31.4 44.8 53.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 88.7 108.0 87.9 152.5 79.7 73.9 50.7 64.8 75.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 57.5 69.6 67.0 152.3 78.2 73.1 26.3 37.3 56.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 64.4 74.9 59.2 137.5 73.4 69.3 38.6 43.8 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 41.7 47.0 61.8 140.7 72.9 71.2 20.1 29.3 39.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 92.8 102.4 98.1 153.5 81.3 72.4 57.5 79.3 90.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 40.5 45.4 42.9 105.0 63.8 57.5 18.9 35.0 48.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 39.2 46.6 57.7 133.5 70.6 68.2 23.4 36.9 44.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 46.1 44.9 48.0 104.4 57.7 54.1 32.4 38.0 61.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 79.6 91.5 94.9 145.4 78.6 72.5 45.7 56.4 66.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 53.6 66.1 54.7 112.6 64.5 57.6 36.3 45.2 68.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 74.9 79.9 93.5 147.6 80.4 75.7 53.8 62.9 71.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 47.4 64.3 65.4 126.0 68.7 65.1 32.6 43.8 62.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 55.6 51.9 50.4 105.2 57.6 53.9 37.0 48.5 68.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 62.6 74.8 62.7 122.7 68.5 62.0 46.3 59.6 72.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 89.5 104.7 87.9 147.9 78.6 71.9 58.6 68.4 77.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 53.6 58.8 54.8 100.0 59.4 53.4 29.2 44.9 76.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 34.2 52.8 45.4 125.1 70.3 64.6 23.6 29.1 41.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 62.7 63.8 56.9 102.8 59.0 54.1 42.6 57.2 65.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 36.1 39.8 51.8 113.9 65.2 60.7 24.4 31.2 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 102.2 118.0 98.1 146.3 79.9 73.7 61.0 70.4 94.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 53.8 61.6 54.2 111.4 61.5 56.5 40.9 46.7 73.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------