***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.6 19.0 9.2 108.9 69.0 53.0 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.7 14.8 8.9 102.1 67.6 52.8 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.1 13.3 9.0 97.3 67.4 54.5 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.9 14.5 7.0 80.2 67.7 52.3 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.9 6.4 77.7 65.9 51.5 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.3 7.6 78.5 61.9 50.4 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.8 9.0 108.7 68.9 52.3 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.5 8.0 82.1 61.7 49.9 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.3 14.0 7.8 84.6 65.7 53.1 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.9 8.9 82.2 62.7 50.9 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.4 10.4 5.9 84.2 66.8 52.3 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.5 6.2 84.1 64.4 51.3 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.2 6.7 5.8 73.1 61.5 49.7 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.9 14.9 13.1 97.4 67.7 53.7 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.3 11.3 5.9 82.6 71.7 52.6 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.3 6.4 82.6 66.5 52.3 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 14.0 9.8 113.6 70.1 52.6 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 11.5 85.3 62.4 52.7 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.7 15.0 9.2 99.1 67.8 53.9 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.6 11.2 83.4 56.4 50.4 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.6 10.7 7.9 89.1 66.3 53.6 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 19.0 10.6 105.7 68.1 54.1 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 12.1 9.9 100.8 69.3 55.4 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.2 10.6 88.1 65.2 53.6 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.3 9.1 102.7 69.6 51.8 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 6.4 7.6 4.3 63.0 60.1 48.5 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.9 17.0 10.0 112.5 69.5 53.2 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.1 6.5 76.1 67.9 51.6 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.8 12.0 83.7 59.5 51.6 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.4 15.5 9.2 104.0 67.9 53.6 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------