***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.1 13.1 13.7 125.9 71.0 59.0 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 14.3 11.9 124.3 70.2 59.1 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.2 15.4 12.9 119.4 67.9 56.4 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.7 14.4 142.8 75.1 56.3 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.8 15.2 12.5 128.7 71.9 52.6 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.6 13.6 13.1 113.9 69.4 55.0 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.1 12.3 12.2 129.0 72.7 59.0 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.9 31.4 12.7 113.2 68.1 50.1 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.2 18.1 13.3 120.5 69.3 53.2 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.2 28.1 13.8 113.1 68.6 48.8 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 17.7 11.1 133.8 74.7 51.9 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.4 10.9 121.9 71.7 54.8 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.4 16.6 11.3 128.7 73.1 53.1 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.8 21.2 17.3 116.6 67.4 55.5 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.6 11.2 12.1 149.3 78.9 60.6 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.8 17.1 11.6 136.0 75.7 54.4 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 13.1 12.0 127.1 71.9 57.8 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.0 28.4 17.1 118.1 68.6 53.6 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.1 16.7 12.0 122.1 69.9 59.2 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 22.6 15.4 110.8 66.4 52.1 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.7 13.0 120.9 70.2 55.6 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.7 12.0 115.6 69.2 56.0 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.1 17.3 12.8 123.2 69.9 58.9 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.5 22.4 16.3 124.4 69.4 56.7 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.5 16.0 15.3 137.2 74.3 56.1 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.2 16.0 9.3 134.2 73.9 59.0 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.7 16.4 15.8 135.0 74.4 58.2 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 17.0 13.1 141.5 76.6 56.6 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 25.8 31.4 17.6 113.9 67.1 53.8 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.4 11.5 12.3 125.3 69.8 58.4 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------