***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 10.0 13.1 19.9 102.3 62.9 59.0 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 14.0 18.0 19.5 116.3 67.0 60.5 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 22.3 26.9 29.2 165.6 77.4 72.9 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 15.5 19.3 22.1 136.0 72.4 68.4 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 20.3 26.0 33.6 201.3 84.6 80.8 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.3 14.7 23.9 155.8 77.0 71.9 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 11.1 12.8 18.1 108.5 63.5 58.8 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 24.3 42.2 48.5 251.9 91.1 84.7 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 19.2 30.1 36.4 214.6 86.9 81.8 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 21.7 66.9 53.8 269.7 92.6 87.0 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 18.6 42.0 40.4 254.8 90.1 85.9 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 18.0 30.4 32.2 218.5 87.3 81.7 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 13.8 18.6 35.1 235.6 86.1 82.7 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 33.9 46.5 52.5 268.7 90.4 83.2 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.1 9.4 17.1 117.2 69.7 64.0 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 13.6 16.3 30.0 206.8 83.4 80.1 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 12.8 13.0 15.2 92.3 58.4 55.8 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 17.2 38.5 51.3 247.3 91.3 85.6 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 14.2 18.9 21.9 129.4 71.2 64.3 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 19.2 32.1 56.0 274.3 93.9 89.2 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 24.2 32.0 30.8 175.1 80.7 76.2 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 12.8 13.0 16.3 99.5 63.1 57.1 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.3 31.4 27.3 157.5 77.0 69.9 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 40.1 48.4 46.1 248.8 90.3 83.9 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 11.8 14.7 20.8 101.8 65.3 60.6 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.7 19.8 20.8 184.3 82.5 75.0 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 12.3 14.5 18.6 92.7 60.5 56.4 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.8 9.8 23.0 148.2 75.5 70.7 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 25.3 71.3 52.8 260.2 92.9 87.0 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 13.9 17.2 20.9 120.0 69.1 62.0 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------