***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.9 28.3 -0.6 44.3 43.1 27.5 28.0 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.7 28.2 -0.7 43.3 41.7 27.5 27.8 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 28.1 27.7 28.3 -0.9 41.1 40.1 27.4 27.9 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 21.3 20.9 25.8 -0.5 45.9 44.4 20.2 21.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.5 26.0 -1.1 35.6 35.5 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.9 23.8 -0.7 41.8 39.7 26.2 27.3 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.7 28.2 -0.6 44.1 42.7 27.6 28.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 15.7 15.6 24.1 -1.2 33.1 34.0 15.6 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.3 26.6 -1.0 37.3 37.5 27.0 28.4 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.1 24.9 -1.0 37.2 37.4 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.0 -1.4 32.0 31.8 27.3 28.2 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 26.5 26.0 25.4 -1.5 28.2 29.8 26.2 27.5 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.0 -1.6 26.6 27.9 27.5 28.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.4 26.2 -0.7 41.8 40.8 27.2 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 29.2 28.9 28.1 -0.4 48.4 45.3 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 28.1 27.6 25.5 -1.4 30.2 30.7 27.8 29.3 29.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.2 27.9 -0.7 41.9 41.0 27.0 27.3 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.3 24.2 -0.8 39.4 39.2 26.1 27.0 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.3 28.3 -0.7 43.0 41.7 26.9 27.5 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.8 21.9 21.7 -1.0 34.9 35.6 21.7 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 28.3 27.7 27.5 -0.9 40.2 39.4 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.8 28.2 -0.3 48.3 47.3 27.4 27.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.5 28.1 -0.9 41.2 39.6 27.4 27.6 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.8 26.2 -0.8 39.5 39.3 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.8 26.6 -0.7 41.6 41.2 27.6 27.9 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.3 27.2 25.3 -1.2 33.3 33.3 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.5 27.4 -0.6 44.4 43.6 27.2 27.5 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 29.2 28.9 26.6 -0.7 43.3 42.0 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.4 23.2 -0.8 37.7 38.0 21.3 22.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.6 28.3 -0.7 45.3 42.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------