***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.1 28.2 -0.4 48.1 47.5 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.7 28.1 -0.5 48.7 47.1 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.4 28.5 -0.5 48.8 47.5 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 19.1 20.6 26.4 -0.3 49.5 48.5 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 29.0 27.4 26.3 -0.8 43.8 43.4 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 27.5 26.6 24.2 -0.2 47.8 48.2 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.6 28.0 -0.4 48.3 47.3 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.6 24.7 -0.7 42.9 43.8 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.3 26.9 26.5 -0.7 44.4 44.7 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.9 25.3 -0.5 45.6 45.8 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 28.4 26.9 26.1 -0.9 41.0 41.7 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.5 25.4 26.0 -1.0 39.2 40.6 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.1 24.9 -1.1 38.6 39.5 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.1 26.1 -0.4 49.3 47.1 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.0 28.0 0.0 53.1 50.4 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 27.5 27.7 25.7 -0.9 40.9 41.7 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.7 27.8 -0.6 45.3 45.6 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.3 24.6 -0.4 48.0 47.7 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.0 28.3 -0.4 49.0 47.5 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 20.9 21.7 22.0 -0.5 44.7 45.2 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.6 27.5 -0.6 47.0 45.9 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.7 28.1 -0.1 50.7 49.7 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.2 28.2 -0.6 47.5 46.5 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.0 26.2 -0.4 48.3 47.2 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.8 26.3 -0.5 47.9 46.1 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.2 26.1 -0.6 42.5 44.0 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.4 27.2 -0.4 48.5 47.5 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.6 29.0 26.9 -0.2 48.9 48.5 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.4 23.5 -0.4 46.8 46.8 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.5 28.2 -0.4 49.9 47.9 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------