***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.2 -2.0 31.3 31.8 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.4 26.4 -2.1 30.5 30.9 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 24.6 25.0 25.8 -2.6 25.5 28.0 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 17.8 18.2 22.6 -2.4 27.6 27.5 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 24.9 25.0 23.4 -3.1 22.2 23.5 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 23.2 23.8 20.9 -3.0 22.3 22.8 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.3 25.4 26.3 -1.8 31.9 32.0 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 12.8 13.0 20.8 -3.4 20.3 21.3 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 24.6 24.5 24.4 -2.9 22.6 24.6 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 24.3 24.0 22.0 -3.1 21.6 23.2 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 24.4 24.2 23.4 -3.6 19.8 21.0 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 23.1 23.2 22.0 -3.8 18.5 19.6 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 23.8 24.0 22.8 -3.9 18.0 19.4 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 24.2 24.9 24.3 -2.3 25.8 28.1 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 26.2 26.4 25.9 -2.5 27.8 27.7 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 24.9 24.9 22.9 -3.7 18.5 20.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 24.7 24.8 26.1 -1.7 32.1 32.9 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 23.6 23.2 21.1 -2.9 23.0 24.2 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 24.3 25.1 26.2 -2.2 30.2 30.8 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 19.2 19.3 18.9 -3.0 22.5 23.2 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 24.8 24.9 25.4 -2.6 24.2 26.8 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.6 25.3 26.4 -1.4 34.9 36.1 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 24.3 25.2 25.8 -2.5 28.2 29.2 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 23.5 23.8 23.9 -2.7 23.6 25.4 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 25.5 25.6 24.7 -2.3 28.8 29.1 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 24.3 24.1 21.6 -3.7 19.7 20.0 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 25.0 25.8 25.6 -1.9 32.2 31.9 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 26.2 26.1 23.7 -2.8 25.1 25.1 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 18.7 18.5 20.4 -2.8 23.1 24.4 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.0 25.5 26.4 -2.1 30.5 31.2 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------