***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.4 18.0 -0.2 45.7 47.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.2 17.9 -0.1 48.4 48.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.0 18.1 -0.3 45.4 44.8 16.7 17.1 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.3 15.6 -0.1 48.6 48.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.9 15.7 -0.3 42.3 42.7 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 13.5 -0.2 45.6 45.3 12.5 13.1 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.6 18.0 -0.1 49.7 49.2 15.0 15.6 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.1 13.4 -0.2 46.7 46.9 7.7 8.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.2 15.9 -0.2 46.0 46.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.0 14.3 -0.1 49.5 49.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.7 15.3 -0.4 40.5 41.0 14.4 15.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.6 14.2 -0.4 39.1 40.5 12.4 13.0 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.0 13.8 -0.4 37.1 38.0 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 15.8 -0.1 51.3 49.7 15.4 15.7 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.2 17.4 -0.1 49.3 49.0 15.8 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.9 14.6 -0.5 37.4 38.0 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 17.7 -0.1 51.5 50.4 15.3 16.2 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.8 13.8 13.6 0.0 53.7 52.1 13.1 13.7 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.2 17.9 -0.2 47.8 47.1 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.5 9.4 11.4 0.0 53.4 51.6 9.2 9.4 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.9 17.1 -0.2 45.5 45.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.0 17.9 0.1 55.1 53.1 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.7 17.7 -0.3 47.6 45.2 14.4 14.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.4 15.7 -0.1 50.8 48.8 14.8 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.9 16.6 -0.2 45.6 46.0 14.7 14.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.5 13.7 13.3 -0.4 37.4 38.3 13.7 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.8 17.2 -0.2 45.5 47.1 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.0 16.0 -0.2 45.1 46.0 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.4 12.9 0.1 54.7 52.7 11.8 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 18.1 -0.2 48.0 48.1 15.2 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------