***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.6 14.6 18.3 -0.5 41.5 43.1 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.0 18.3 -0.4 44.9 43.7 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 16.2 16.7 18.7 -0.5 42.2 42.0 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.8 11.9 16.0 -0.4 42.4 43.4 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.7 -0.7 39.4 38.8 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.0 14.4 -0.2 46.2 45.6 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.3 18.4 -0.4 43.8 44.1 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.9 13.8 -0.5 41.6 41.3 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.6 15.8 -0.6 40.8 39.6 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.5 14.5 -0.5 42.9 41.6 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 14.1 14.3 15.4 -0.8 37.2 37.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 12.0 12.6 14.6 -0.7 37.3 38.2 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.6 13.8 -0.7 35.2 38.0 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 15.0 15.6 16.0 -0.4 43.4 41.9 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.7 16.5 17.8 -0.2 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 14.3 14.7 14.7 -0.7 37.3 38.1 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.1 18.1 -0.4 47.9 44.1 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.1 13.7 -0.3 47.5 44.1 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.1 18.3 -0.5 44.0 42.8 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.2 11.4 -0.3 46.8 44.5 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 13.8 14.3 17.3 -0.6 40.7 40.6 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.2 -0.3 49.2 46.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.6 18.2 -0.6 40.8 40.9 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.9 15.8 -0.4 44.0 42.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.8 16.7 -0.5 41.3 42.4 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.7 13.7 -0.6 36.2 39.6 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.7 17.5 -0.4 41.7 43.4 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.0 16.5 -0.3 43.8 44.0 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.1 13.2 -0.3 47.5 44.7 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.3 18.5 -0.4 44.0 43.7 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------